Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
