Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
